The EIA released its May Short-Term Energy Outlook today, May 12. The update materially changes the diesel price forecast for Q2 and Q3 2026, and any contractor who has been working from the April projection should know the numbers have moved.
The April STEO projected diesel would average approximately $5.61 per gallon in Q2 before easing to around $5.00 in Q3 and $4.59 in Q4. That forecast was built on an assumption that supply disruptions affecting global oil trade would not persist past April. The May STEO revises that assumption. According to the EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, traffic through key shipping corridors has largely remained at a standstill into May, with gradual resumption now expected beginning in June and supply conditions not returning to pre-disruption levels until late 2026 (Source: EIA May 2026 STEO, eia.gov). The EIA now estimates global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, keeping Brent crude oil prices around $106 per barrel through May and June.
The May 12 weekly retail data, also released today, confirmed national average diesel at $5.64 per gallon via EIA via FRED (Source: EIA, May 12, 2026). That is the same level as the April peak and confirms that the brief dip to $5.40 in late April was not the beginning of a sustained easing move.
“We estimate that global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in 2Q26, pushing Brent crude oil prices to an average of around $106/b in May and June. Once traffic through key shipping routes gradually begins to resume in June and shut-in oil production gradually returns, we assume oil prices will begin to ease.” Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook · eia.gov/outlooks/steo
For Texas contractors, the practical implication is direct. Fuel accounts for roughly 20 to 25 percent of the total operating cost of a truckload haul. Delivery quotes built on expectations of Q3 cost relief are now carrying forecast risk that the EIA has confirmed. The $5.00 per gallon Q3 average from the April outlook is no longer the working projection. The easing the April forecast described has been pushed several months further out.
Hauling surcharge tables in most agreements lag spot price changes by one to three weeks. Quotes issued in late April when prices briefly touched $5.40 may now be underpriced relative to where haulers are actually operating at $5.64. Contractors who locked in delivery commitments based on that brief dip should confirm current pricing before Q3 jobs are scheduled.
The next STEO update releases June 9. Between now and then, the EIA’s May forecast is the best available projection of where diesel costs are heading. That forecast does not support the assumption of meaningful Q3 relief.
The May STEO confirmed what the price data was already showing. The easing is not coming in Q3. A current delivered quote is the only reliable number to budget from right now.