Every major forecast going into 2026 called for diesel prices to drop. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected a national average of $3.47 per gallon for the year. The logic was sound…domestic crude production was at record levels, non-OPEC supply was growing, and inventories were expected to build.
The national average for the week of April 6 confirmed at $5.643 per gallon, roughly 55% above where it was expected to be for this time of year. For contractors ordering bulk aggregate delivery, that gap doesn’t stay in the fuel market. It moves directly into your delivery quotes.
Fuel accounts for roughly 20–25% of the total operating cost of a truckload haul. Industry analysts estimate the current spike adds approximately $0.36 per mile in additional cost for haulers. On a 60-mile round trip from pit to jobsite (not unusual for Central or North Texas deliveries) that’s a meaningful number per load. Multiply it across 50 or 100 loads on a single job and the variance from your original budget becomes a real problem.
“Forecasts projected U.S. diesel prices would average $3.47 per gallon in 2026. As of late March the national average hit $5.37 per gallon, roughly 55% above where it was expected to be. For trucking, that translates to approximately $0.36 per mile in additional operating cost.”
Source: Tradlinx Freight Intelligence · April 2026
Most fuel surcharge tables in hauling contracts were designed for gradual price movement, not $1 swings in a month. The velocity of this spike means surcharges are lagging actual pump costs. Carriers absorb that gap in the short term, but they push back through rate adjustments and load selectivity. Quotes issued six to eight weeks ago are being revised. If you’re working from a delivery estimate dated before March, assume it needs to be confirmed before you use it in a budget or a bid.
There’s no clear timeline for relief. The disruption is not something domestic production can offset quickly. The practical position for Q2 is to treat current pricing as the floor, plan for continued volatility, and get confirmation on any active quotes before your job schedule is locked.
If you have jobs moving in Q2, a current delivery quote costs nothing and protects your budget from a number that was set before the market moved.